In Which we talk about Apathy: how an Empire fell by a thousand papercuts

Good afternoon, dear friend! This post is going to be a big one in size, I had a lot in mind to assemble! Hope you are well, and hope the weather is lovely! I am happy it is another day on the christmas season, yet I also worry that this post is quite big! Anyway, I in advance beg your forgiveness for not writing some words properly, my eyes are bothering me... I hope my point may come across anyway... let us jump to it...

There has been a number of bad events over the past weeks. In Brazil, we are closer to the meme "I can't complain about things (or else I may be in judicial jeopardy)" than not. The election here was a disaster, and not because some group voted one way or the other, that is the wrong way of looking at it. Truth is, it was one election with a predetermined result. The evidence over fraud or at least something very eerie happening to the process is enough to, unfortunately, I must tell, because some certainly deserve the shaming, absolve people from any bad choice made. There is no use, the voting counters were already set to rig and to move the pendulum at their will. So they did. I don't know about the day of tomorrow, but I know if there would be another election, say, next week, I would be willing to pay the fine that comes with not voting (because in Brazil, voting is mandatory).

Now, something more interesting, albeit tragic, happened in America. Something that brought the end to the brazilian empire, even. I cannot say for sure, but the hypothesis I saw on a video does at least encourage me to say my take on its situation. That hypothesis is: apathy, from key sectors of the conservative voting, and informational chaos to fuel such situation. Why does that ring a bell concerning the downfall of the reign of D. Pedro II? Well...

You see, the monarchy was, on the whole, popular. Most of the inhabitants of Brazil had no issue with the, now growing old and worn out, D. Pedro II. Question is, it did not matter, as the key groups of the imperial hierarchy were disenchanted with Pedro and the Empire as a whole, not only due to the spreading of positivist doctrine amongst some resenrful and educated military staff, positivism that advocated for a republic, rather than a monarchy, not only due to a percentage of the urban middle class, feeling fatigued with the ailing Pedro and his government. The missing piece was certainly the abolition of slavery, with the issuing of the Golden Bull, by the abolitionist advocate and princess of the empire Isabel, acting as regent while his father was on a trip for health reasons.

Abolitionism was the great issue of those days, and although by the 1880s most of the population was at least hostile to such concept, in practice, getting rid of it was never even close of being a topic of agreement. For decades, the approach of the ministers and parliament was the one of letting it die naturally, while pushing for some legislation here and there. There was a growing abolitionist novement, much more prone to action, but as a rule, the official approach was to not bother too much the declining but still relevant coffee barons of the region of Rio de Janeiro. Apart from the morals, that were never on the slavery side (for many centuries there was a pragmatic approach to it, but rarely a defense), there were strong arguments for at least not abolishing it for many more years. 

Now, Brazil's economy, in opposition to the still mainstream academia belief, was not a backwater in those days. The situation for the years of Pedro was actually very favorable, the growth was stable, steady, and accelerating. Though it is true that most of the revenue came from the coffee fields, the proprietaries of such plots were far from just "hoarding their gold bullions". Coffee was financing the industrial revolution in the country, and a truly thriving cultural scene, amongst other things. And yet, the issue of slave labor was not resolved even as far as the 1880s. The coffee barons of São Paulo and surroundings were doing promising experimental steps in replacing slaves with immigrants from Europe and Asia, but it was at that point not enough, and the debate lingered, still.

Isabel, deemed too religiously devout, too physically unimpressive, too much passionate about her abolitionist ideas, was not really passing the image of a promising successor to at least important sectors of the court and government. When came the opportunity, with many on the parliament at her side, she signed what came to be known as Golden Bull, lei Aurea, effectively immediately putting an end to captivity labor judicial backing in the whole nation. That move, quite bold, for a country not that used to such emphatic actions, not of that size, exploded in glee and relief when it was known. Machado de Assis, the writer, remarking that he never seen such joy and hope all around. But there was a catch to Isabel and the imperial family, and that was the fact that the Rio de Janeiro barons now lost what they deemed as "their property". By the law, the issue got a strong endpoint. In practice, that effectively made the monarchy lose support of a group that was very important for their legitimacy.

The Coffee Barons of Rio were not a monolith, and most of them did not converted to revolutionary ideas suddenly, and yet, they were the last effective contingent that could serve as a check and balance to the resentful military staff - they were resentful because, while Brazil won the Paraguay war, they felt they did not receive enough praise or compensation for their actions - that was growing republican in a frenzied manner. Such Barons, then, though most did not participate in the coup that followed, in 1889, abolition of the monarchy and expulsion of the imperial family, also did not move even a single finger to object that series of events. They were apathic, many were resentful in their own situation, feeling the Empire let them down. The empire fell not in a horrific civil war, or a dramatic set of debates and polemics. It was in fact almost left to die by a thousand papercuts and bureocratic dryness. Most in Brazil did not want their Empire to fall, Pedro was popular and even beloved, that did not matter much, it fell anyway. Nothing really wrong was done, just some marshall with a plan had a more dynamic plan to set in motion.. and the rest is the rest.

Why do I bring this? I think of the Republican loss of the midterms in America. The paralel comes to what made it happen: apathy. Trump did achieve many things in two years, but that much was not enough if key sectors had either other plans to set in motion, and the other key sectors to be as a whole too absorbed by some punctual grievances, too apathic, to have done anything else. Though it is true that Mr. Trump still has two more years in the presidency, his mandate has been significantly diminished, by a thousand paper cuts, small blunders that accumulated, and highly organized and resentful rivals that knew how to exploit them. 

Though times of deep trouble are to follow, most likely, as the ones that won the midterms are positively dreadful, right now, very little is felt, besides desperation on those that know things will worsen significantly. Though the fall of Imperial Brazil was also the beginning of times of immense trouble to the country, trouble that still faces today, very much so, at the time, very little changed significantly. When people started to lament and wonder if the empire would return, it was too late, Pedro was dead, the institution long gone.

This is what I had in mind to bring today, just one of my divagations, so to speak, based on this video I watched analyzing the midterms. It is a longer post, I am aware, but I wanted to put it out there in any case. Again, I apologize for the typos, my eyes are dry and I cannot see properly, that with the fact I write on the phone. That makes me ever more grateful you are here! So, with all that said, I wish you the best! See you again real soon, hopefully by the weekend! Cheers!